LIQUIDITY MATRIX
PUBLIC TEST · NOT SIGNALS

Trend following: a public test

The same eight rules on every market we cover. We published the rules before knowing any result; from now on every trade is recorded here when it happens, and nothing is removed or edited.

Test started2 November 2026
Markets8
TimeframeDaily, trades last weeks
First reviewFebruary 2027

Where each market stands

MarketRules longRules short Out of the marketResult since the start
Gold XAUUSD035-2.02R
Silver XAGUSD035-0.11R
EUR/USD EURUSD035-0.50R
GBP/USD GBPUSD224-0.03R
USD/JPY USDJPY404-0.74R
Nasdaq 100 NAS100161+3.77R
Dow Jones 30 US30215-1.41R
Bitcoin BTCUSD224-0.01R
Gold · XAUUSD
RulePositionSinceEntryStopOpen
20-day breakoutOut
55-day breakoutOut
100-day breakoutOut
EMA 20 / 100 crossOut
EMA 50 / 200 crossOut
3-month momentumShort2 Nov 20263945.884173.38-0.67R
6-month momentumShort2 Nov 20263945.884173.38-0.67R
12-month momentumShort2 Nov 20263945.884173.38-0.67R
Silver · XAGUSD
RulePositionSinceEntryStopOpen
20-day breakoutOut
55-day breakoutOut
100-day breakoutOut
EMA 20 / 100 crossOut
EMA 50 / 200 crossOut
3-month momentumShort2 Nov 202650.48056.585-0.04R
6-month momentumShort2 Nov 202650.48056.585-0.04R
12-month momentumShort2 Nov 202650.48056.585-0.04R
EUR/USD · EURUSD
RulePositionSinceEntryStopOpen
20-day breakoutOut
55-day breakoutOut
100-day breakoutOut
EMA 20 / 100 crossOut
EMA 50 / 200 crossOut
3-month momentumShort2 Nov 20261.118671.13842-0.17R
6-month momentumShort2 Nov 20261.118671.13842-0.17R
12-month momentumShort2 Nov 20261.118671.13842-0.17R
GBP/USD · GBPUSD
RulePositionSinceEntryStopOpen
20-day breakoutLong2 Nov 20261.340811.31928+0.19R
55-day breakoutOut
100-day breakoutOut
EMA 20 / 100 crossOut
EMA 50 / 200 crossOut
3-month momentumShort2 Nov 20261.340631.36216-0.21R
6-month momentumShort2 Nov 20261.340631.36216-0.21R
12-month momentumLong2 Nov 20261.340811.31928+0.19R
USD/JPY · USDJPY
RulePositionSinceEntryStopOpen
20-day breakoutLong3 Nov 2026158.71156.28-0.42R
55-day breakoutOut
100-day breakoutOut
EMA 20 / 100 crossOut
EMA 50 / 200 crossOut
3-month momentumLong2 Nov 2026157.95155.60-0.11R
6-month momentumLong2 Nov 2026157.95155.60-0.11R
12-month momentumLong2 Nov 2026157.95155.60-0.11R
Nasdaq 100 · NAS100
RulePositionSinceEntryStopOpen
20-day breakoutShort2 Nov 202628087.3029847.07+0.91R
55-day breakoutShort2 Nov 202628087.3029847.07+0.91R
100-day breakoutShort5 Nov 202626491.6028624.69-0.00R
EMA 20 / 100 crossShort4 Nov 202628515.8030436.64+1.05R
EMA 50 / 200 crossOut
3-month momentumShort2 Nov 202628087.3029847.07+0.91R
6-month momentumShort2 Nov 202628087.3029847.07+0.91R
12-month momentumLong2 Nov 202628089.3026329.53-0.91R
Dow Jones 30 · US30
RulePositionSinceEntryStopOpen
20-day breakoutOut
55-day breakoutOut
100-day breakoutOut
EMA 20 / 100 crossOut
EMA 50 / 200 crossOut
3-month momentumShort2 Nov 202652005.3053856.72+0.40R
6-month momentumLong2 Nov 202652008.3050156.88-0.40R
12-month momentumLong2 Nov 202652008.3050156.88-0.40R
Bitcoin · BTCUSD
RulePositionSinceEntryStopOpen
20-day breakoutShort2 Nov 202676674.1382650.76+0.11R
55-day breakoutOut
100-day breakoutOut
EMA 20 / 100 crossOut
EMA 50 / 200 crossOut
3-month momentumShort2 Nov 202676674.1382650.76+0.11R
6-month momentumLong2 Nov 202676694.1370717.50-0.12R
12-month momentumLong2 Nov 202676694.1370717.50-0.12R

Updated by code every morning from real daily candles. Last candle: 5 Nov 2026

Closed trades

ClosedMarketRuleSideEntryExitResult
5 Nov 2026Dow Jones 3020-day breakoutLong53456.8051347.14-1.00R

The rules (published before any result)

  1. Eight classic trend-following rules: breakouts of the 20, 55 and 100-day high or low (exits on 10, 20 and 50 days), the 20/100 and 50/200 moving-average crosses, and 3, 6 and 12-month momentum, checked once a week.
  2. Entry at the close of the day the signal appears.
  3. A fixed stop 3 times the average daily range (ATR 20) away.
  4. Exit by each rule's own exit, or at the stop.
  5. Results in R (profit divided by the risk) after an assumed typical spread. Overnight swap is not included, because it differs from broker to broker. No position sizes and no balances.

Why these rules?

Trend following is one of the most studied methods across many markets. In our historical tests (2018 to October 2026) it was the only one that beat random entries on gold.

It did not beat them on EUR/USD, nor on a group of 13 markets tested together over 2018–2022. So we do not treat it as proven: this public test will decide.

A historical test is not a promise. Past results do not guarantee future results, and trend trades lose more often than they win; they live on a few large winners.

When do we judge?

November 2026Start, rules published
February 2027First public review
YearsA real verdict needs hundreds of trades

Everything we tested, and what failed, is in the lab.

A public educational test — not signals and not financial advice.